Could Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy be on thinner ice than Western media portrays? The embattled leader faces plummeting approval ratings amid a disastrous war that has left many Ukrainians questioning his leadership.
At a glance:
• Zelenskyy’s approval rating has plummeted from 90% to around 50% since the war began
• Ukrainian constitution prohibits elections during martial law, which Zelenskyy’s government has used to delay any vote
• Both the U.S. and Russia agree elections should be part of any peace deal
• Former military leader Valerii Zaluzhnyi has a higher favorable rating (62%) than Zelenskyy (52%)
• Recent polls show Ukrainians shifting toward supporting negotiations rather than continued fighting
Zelenskyy’s Sinking Popularity
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s political future looks increasingly uncertain as the conflict with Russia drags on with no end in sight. His approval ratings have nosedived nearly 40 percentage points since the war began, dropping from a wartime high of 90% to around 50% currently.
The former comedian who won Ukraine’s 2019 presidential election in a landslide with 73% of the vote now faces growing discontent among his war-weary population. Recent surveys reveal a deepening divide in Ukrainian public opinion about their once-beloved leader.
Despite constitutional requirements for elections, Zelenskyy’s government maintains that no voting will take place while martial law remains in effect. This stance has drawn criticism from political opponents who suggest the president is exploiting wartime powers to cling to his position beyond his constitutional term limit.
Rising Opposition and Peace Sentiment
Former military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi poses the most significant threat to Zelenskyy’s continued leadership. Polling data shows Zaluzhnyi enjoys a 62% favorable rating among Ukrainians, outpacing Zelenskyy’s 52%.
In a hypothetical election matchup, Zelenskyy still leads Zaluzhnyi by 44% to 21%, but this gap could narrow as war fatigue increases. Zelenskyy also faces challenges from former President Petro Poroshenko, who boldly predicted elections would occur on October 26 this year.
“Write it down – Oct. 26 this year,” Poroshenko stated confidently, challenging Zelenskyy’s authority. This direct challenge highlights growing dissatisfaction with the current administration’s handling of the conflict.
Public sentiment is shifting noticeably toward diplomatic solutions rather than continued military confrontation. Gallup’s latest polling reveals 52% of Ukrainians now support negotiations, a dramatic increase from just 27% in 2022.
U.S.-Russia Agreement on Elections
In a rare point of convergence, both American and Russian officials agree that Ukrainian elections should be part of any potential peace deal. U.S. Envoy Keith Kellogg suggested elections could take place by the end of the year if hostilities cease.
Zelenskyy responded defensively to Kellogg’s proposal, stating: “It is very important for Kellogg to come to Ukraine. Then he would understand the people and all our circumstances.” This response indicates reluctance to commit to elections under current conditions.
Some foreign policy experts warn against rushing into elections during the conflict. Andrew D’Anieri from the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center cautioned: “The only person that benefits from elections before there’s a durable peace deal is Putin.”
Compounding Zelenskyy’s challenges is the loss of support from his main financial backer, oligarch Ihor Kolomoyski, who now faces serious legal charges. This development further erodes the president’s power base at a critical moment in Ukraine’s struggle.
