Since the presidential election of 2016, federal politics in America has increasingly become an arena of volatility and divisiveness. Both major American political parties have become tribal in many regards and have moved to the “left” and “right” in their respective ideologies. Republicans have benefited from a populist movement initiated by Donald Trump which has championed nationalist economics, stricter enforcement of immigration laws and tougher border security. Additionally, since Trump’s brand of right wing politics was adopted by the party, stronger foreign policy positions were assumed by the U.S. during his term. Trump remains the leader of the party.
In contrast, following the election of President Biden in 2020, progressives have governed in a fashion that is opposite to Republicans. The Biden administration has failed to enforce and in some cases rescinded immigration policies instituted by Trump, and millions of illegal migrants have entered the nation since Biden’s term began in early 2021. American manufacturing and energy production has been diminished as Biden and the Democrats have taken extreme positions on the issue of “climate change”. Domestic oil production is down and after being energy independent for part of the Trump presidency, the country is once again reliant on oil imports from hostile nations like Venezuela and Iran. Biden has appeared weak and incoherent in terms of international messaging and foreign policy, and enemies of the United States have taken notice; Russia is at war with Ukraine returning conflict to Europe for the first time since 1945 and Islamic extremist terrorist groups like Hamas are at war with Israel in the Middle East.
In recent polls, Trump and Biden appear tied in crucial swing states in a hypothetical rematch of 2020. Forecasting the 2024 presidential election is difficult and the state of politics often changes quickly. The election remains over a year away, but in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the current 46th President and Trump are statistically tied.