David Cohen, the Deputy Director of the CIA, predicted that it would not be easy for Russia to take back its region of Kursk from the Ukrainian forces who had captured it after a historic invasion that saw Russian soldiers surrendering in bulk.
Cohen indicated that even if Russian President Vladimir Putin starts an offensive to push Ukrainian forces back from Kursk, Russia will be in for a “difficult fight.”
He further suggested that the long-term consequences of the Ukrainian invasion of Russia remain to be seen, adding that Ukraine would like to keep its control of the captured territory for “some period of time.”
According to the director, Putin is not only disturbed by the realization that Ukraine has managed to develop front military bases in Russia but can also face scrutiny from within his own country for losing a part of Russia.
He also argued that the Ukrainian success in capturing strategic positions within Kursk has the potential to change the direction of the war as we move forward.
Cohen’s comments came at a time when Russia is also advancing to capture Ukraine’s city of Pokrovsk and has made notable gains after launching the offensive, although Cohen said that Putin is seizing Pokrovsk by paying “extraordinary cost.” He also claimed that even if Russia manages to get control of Pokrovsk, this city will not be helpful strategically.
Meanwhile, other military experts believe that Russia and Ukraine are busy annexing each other’s lands without defending their own, which has essentially brought them to a situation where they are playing the game “who blinks first?” by retreating their soldiers from their opponent’s territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that negotiations are the only way to end the war, which is in its third year.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine has first to accept “realities on the ground,” indicating that the settlement would only be possible if Ukraine surrendered some of its cities to Russia, which seems a highly improbable outcome of the conflict.
Putin has indicated that the war could only end if Ukraine ends its ambitions to join NATO, hands over its four provinces to Russia, and embrace “denazification” of the country. This proposal is far from what Ukraine’s ideal war outcome would look like, as the country’s main motive is to get its pre-war borders back.
Military experts believe that the Kursk invasion has improved Ukrainian standing on the negotiation table, which will help them during any future peace talks. Now that Ukraine has also tested its own ballistic missiles, this is also expected to give it a major boost during any negotiations.
Zelenskyy is likely to unveil its so-called “victory plan” in front of the United States somewhere in September.
