There Might Be A Red Wave After All

( )- It’s possible that a red wave did, indeed, hit the nation. Simply put, it didn’t translate into the electoral results that have historically been associated with significant political shifts. Close observers are only starting to delve into the causes of this paradigm-shattering disconnect after the initial wave of instant narratives extemporized by pundits on election night.

According to the most recent data from the Cook Political Report, Republicans lead significantly in the national popular vote for the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Mainly, GOP candidates collected 50,672,592 votes or 52.3% of all votes. Comparatively, Democratic candidates have accumulated 44,802,597 votes or 46.2% of the total.

The Cook’s 2022 National House Vote Tracker provided these statistics.

This support for the GOP seems to be consistent with what the results of the pre-election polls had shown going into the election. Republicans have been gaining ground in recent months, as evidenced by the rise in the polls of several candidates, including those seeking the Senate and governorships.

According to polling, voters’ top two concerns were the economy (primarily inflation) and crime, and they trusted Republicans more than Democrats to handle both of these issues.

Before the election, President Biden’s approval ratings were also typically in the low 40s, and other polls revealed that between 70% and 80% of Americans believed the nation was headed in the wrong direction. These two factors have historically been powerful predictors of the party in power losing significant numbers of seats in the midterm elections.

However, Democratic victories in important Senate and gubernatorial races and better-than-expected results in House races dimmed Republican hopes for a landslide, red-wave triumph on Tuesday night.

At this moment, it’s unclear what accounts for the stark discrepancy between the GOP’s poor performance in capturing seats and its big lead in the popular vote.

While we wait for the complete results and supporting data, some experts have offered their opinions on why the GOP still seems to be winning the popular vote yet falling short of expectations.

“With black and Hispanic voters, in particular, the Republicans did reasonably well. However, it didn’t result in seats,” Senior election analyst for RealClearPolitics Sean Trende tweeted.

The party that won the most seats in previous midterm elections also won the popular vote by a large margin.