Russia’s military continues to face significant losses in its ongoing war against Ukraine, with over 630,000 casualties reported. Despite maintaining an impressive force generation capability for nearly 940 days of conflict, the Kremlin is now struggling to keep its ranks filled.
To counterbalance these losses, Moscow has employed creative, if controversial, recruitment methods. At one point, the Russian government relied on prison inmates, offering them the prospect of freedom in exchange for frontline service. Unfortunately, many of these recruits perished soon after being deployed. The Kremlin has also been targeting minority populations within Russia for recruitment, as well as offering substantial payments to foreign mercenaries from countries such as Cuba, Mali, and Syria.
However, these efforts appear to be losing steam. According to British Military Intelligence, Russia’s recruitment rates have slowed in 2024 compared to the previous year. Current estimates suggest that the Russian Ministry of Defense is recruiting around 1,000 troops per day, down from around 1,600 daily in 2023. Even these numbers may be exaggerated, according to Western intelligence sources.
This slowdown in recruitment presents a significant challenge for the Russian military, especially as its forces continue to suffer heavy casualties. For almost 150 days, the Russian military has been losing over 1,000 soldiers each day. Although new recruits are joining the ranks daily, the rate of losses means there is little to no net gain in troop strength.
Recent reports from Ukraine indicate that the Russian military and its affiliated forces, including paramilitaries and pro-Russian separatists, lost over 1,000 soldiers in just the past 24 hours. Over the past week, the Russian forces have sustained an average of 1,171 losses per day, further exacerbating their manpower issues.
In a bid to attract more recruits, the Russian government has significantly increased its sign-on bonuses. Some recruits are now receiving thousands of dollars upfront, a sum that far exceeds what many could earn in civilian jobs. However, this recruitment strategy is proving to be a costly one. British Military Intelligence reports that military personnel payments have amounted to roughly 8% of Russia’s federal spending in the year leading up to June 2024. Despite these high costs, it is expected that the increased payments will help bolster recruitment through the rest of the year.
While Russia’s military continues to maintain a sizable presence in Ukraine, with Western intelligence estimating about 500,000 troops in the country, the high casualty rates and recruitment challenges raise questions about how long the Kremlin can sustain the war effort.
