China’s military expansion and cognitive warfare tactics pose a growing threat to U.S. influence and global stability, according to the 2024 China Military Power Report.
At a Glance
- China aims to reshape the international order and achieve “great rejuvenation” by 2049
- PLA rapidly building nuclear capabilities, projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030
- China employs “cognitive warfare” to manipulate information and undermine adversaries
- U.S. faces challenges in countering China’s military buildup and strategic ambitions
China’s Military Expansion and Strategic Goals
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is pursuing an aggressive military buildup aimed at challenging the United States and its allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The 2024 China Military Power Report, set to be released on December 18, 2024, identifies the PRC as a major competitor with the intent to reshape the international order.
Things are going to get weird in 2025.
China’s national strategy seeks to achieve the “great rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation by 2049 – and the project has already started. This ambitious goal is backed by a rapid expansion of military capabilities, including nuclear armaments. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has over 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024, with projections indicating this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Scary.
Cognitive Warfare and Gray Zone Activities
Beyond conventional military expansion, China is employing sophisticated “cognitive warfare” tactics to manipulate information environments and undermine adversaries’ decision-making processes. This approach is part of a broader strategy that includes gray-zone activities, coercive and aggressive actions designed to remain below the threshold of conventional military conflict.
“Gray zone conflict is best understood as activity that is coercive and aggressive in nature, but that is deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of conventional military conflict and open interstate war,” Hal Brands said.
China’s strategy incorporates the concept of “Three Warfare” – public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare – aimed at influencing adversaries’ decision-making and public perception. This multifaceted approach allows China to pursue its objectives without resorting to full-scale military engagement.
Implications for U.S. and Global Security
The rapid pace of China’s military modernization and expansion presents significant challenges for the United States and its allies. The PLA is developing capabilities specifically aimed at countering U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region, with modernization milestones set for 2027.
“The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is undertaking an unprecedented military buildup aimed at challenging America and its allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. And, like Nazi Germany’s buildup in the 1930s, the militarization program ordered by the Chinese Communist Party isn’t simply a great power buildup — it’s a weapon in service of a deadly ideology,” Chuck DeVore said.
To address these challenges, experts argue that the U.S. must take decisive action. This includes rebuilding its fleet, modernizing its nuclear arsenal, expanding missile defenses, and restoring maritime lift capability. However, the U.S. faces significant fiscal constraints that threaten its ability to respond effectively to China’s military advancements.
Is America keeping up with China? It doesn’t feel like it, does it?
