GOP Has A Big Advantage This Election Season

( )- Republicans can expect a 13-seat majority in the latest House forecast, leaving Democrats with a 14-seat deficit. The trend line favors Democrats, but 13 seats mean the GOP would hold a comfortable governing majority. This edition of the Power Rankings looks at shifts toward Democrats in nine battleground House races and two key Senate races. The “best case” scenario for Democrats would give them a razor-thin majority (219 seats). The best-case scenario for Republicans gives them a commanding 28-seat majority (246 seats).

Abortion policy and the future of U.S. democracy are two of the top four issues voters care most about. Inflation remains the number one issue in every major poll, and that issue favors Republicans by a wide margin. The GOP leads by 12 points, with voters extremely concerned about inflation and high prices. Democrats now have an edge in Washington’s 8th congressional district, where Kim Schrier runs ads featuring local politicians. Illinois’ 17th district is more competitive than ever.

Washington’s 8th district moves from Toss Up to Lean D. Arizona’s 1st, and 2nd districts are shifting from Likely R to Lean R. Wisconsin’s 3rd district, where incumbent Rep. Ron Kind is retiring, is also shifting. Sarah Palin’s failure to win Alaska’s at-large district moves the seat from Lean R to Toss Up. New Hampshire’s 2nd district, which includes Nashua and Concord, moves from Lean D to Lean D. Maggie Hassan moves from Toss Up to Lean D in New Hampshire. Don Bolduc struggles to paint himself as a moderate in a state that voted for Joe Biden in 2016. The Buckeye State looks more of a battleground than initially expected.

In Utah, independent challenger Evan McMullin is unlikely to prevail against incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Lee, but the race is competitive. Incumbent Brian Kemp appears to be eking out a lead against Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson left the Democratic Party and launched a bid to become the state’s first independent governor since 1935. Democrat Tina Kotek is emphasizing her position on abortion rights, while Republican Christine Drazan is hammering Kotek on her ties to unpopular Gov. Kate Brown.