An election analyst has explained that former President Donald Trump is on track to win the election and that his numbers are surging – but he can’t explain why.
There are so many obvious answers to this one…
At a glance:
- Dr. Thomas Miller, a data scientist from Northwestern University, has observed a sudden surge in Donald Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes, raising his total from 230 to 275 in recent days.
- Miller uses political betting data from PredictIT, arguing it is more reliable than traditional polls.
- Despite the recent change in Trump’s favor, Miller warns that this could shift again, and he expects the race to remain a tossup as Election Day approaches.
Dr. Thomas Miller, a renowned data analyst from Northwestern University, has noted a sharp increase in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election based on his predictive model. Over the last ten days, Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes surged from 230 to 275, surpassing the critical 270-vote threshold needed to win the presidency. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, who was previously leading with 308 electoral votes, has seen her numbers fall to 263.
Miller’s model, which is updated daily on his website, The Virtual Tout, maps out vote predictions based on data from PredictIT, a popular political betting site. Miller believes this method is more reliable than conventional polls because it reflects where people are willing to invest money based on their expectations. As he explained, “When you put your money down, you believe what you are betting on.”
https://x.com/FortuneMagazine/status/1844583674135679337
However, the sudden surge in Trump’s predicted votes has puzzled Miller. He is unable to pinpoint a single event that explains the shift between October 6 and 7, though he notes that predictions may continue to fluctuate until Election Day on November 5. The race remains highly volatile, and Miller predicts that it could return to a tossup in the coming weeks.
Despite Trump’s lead in Miller’s model, national polls still show Kamala Harris with a narrow 2.6-point lead, indicating that the outcome of the election remains far from certain. The volatility and unpredictability of this election cycle are unlike anything seen before, with both candidates alternating between tossup scenarios and significant leads in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
Miller warns that the final outcome is likely to depend on the critical swing states, and the election could still flip in either direction as new developments unfold. He expects continued fluctuations in both candidates’ projected chances as the race progresses toward its conclusion.
As the news comes, other reports are revealing how Trump just flipped Nevada in the RealClear Politics polling data.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1844729244628181179
Trump could just have this one in the bag…
