Nate Silver, a political statistician, doubts that President Joe Biden will be able to win reelection in 2024.
Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, wrote a lengthy essay in his Substack newsletter arguing that Biden should step aside if he cannot conduct a regular reelection campaign.
The statistician said that the Democrats would be taking a significant risk if they decided to replace Biden but would take an even bigger one if they nominated him. He goes on to say that voters and the media will take note if President Joe Biden cannot keep up with the pace of a typical incumbent president seeking re-election or if he regularly makes gaffes, blunders, and spills. Because of his advanced age, this may be difficult for Biden to handle.
The Biden team is rejecting Silver’s assessment. Campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said they wouldn’t take their cues from the same source speculated two-term Obama would lose in 2011. The analyst had written an article for The New York Times saying as much. (Silver often gets a lot of predictions wrong.)
While Biden and his team tried to address concerns among his ranks and attacks in the media about the president’s age, physical condition, and election possibilities against former President Donald Trump, Silver, who has expressed misgivings about Biden’s political prospects, seems to be piling on.
Former Obama advisor David Axelrod came under fire from Biden supporters earlier this month for tweets in which he questioned Biden’s qualifications to be the Democratic Party’s next leader. Axelrod then reversed his statements, indicating that he did not advise him to drop out and that it was an overreaction to suggest so.
Despite surveys from the New York Times and CNN showing that the president was trailing Trump in key battleground states, Biden and his team seemed unfazed, perhaps whistling past the graveyard.