As a new ceasefire seeks to halt hostilities in Lebanon, Iran’s unwavering backing of Hezbollah threatens the prospect of lasting peace.
At a Glance
- The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began, with Iran pledging continued support for Hezbollah.
- A senior IRGC official claimed the ceasefire was a “major victory” for Hezbollah over Israel.
- The ceasefire includes conditions for Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River.
- Significant displacement occurred in Lebanon, with 1.2 million people affected.
Iran’s Influence Over the Ceasefire
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group, began on November 28, presenting a fragile opportunity for peace in Lebanon. Iran celebrated the ceasefire, claiming it as a victory despite the death of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah’s in an Israeli airstrike in September. Israeli and Hezbollah troops have both agreed to withdraw from southern Lebanon, but an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official suggested Hezbollah could yet impose conditions on Israel.
The ceasefire agreement includes a transition for Lebanon to regain control of areas previously held by Hezbollah. The Islamist group’s acts of violence in Lebanon followed Israel’s conflict with Hamas, which has caused considerable harm over more than a year of fighting. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, warned that the ceasefire would end if Hezbollah resumed hostilities.
Ongoing Challenges and Uncertainties
The United States and France brokered the ceasefire, including a two-month period during which Hezbollah must withdraw north of the Litani River. Additionally, a buffer zone will be installed and patrolled by Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers. Presuming that these conditions are met, Israel pledges gradual withdrawal. Despite diplomatic efforts, the influence exerted by Iran and Hezbollah remains significant. As previously noted by Israeli officials, “several suspects were identified arriving with vehicles to areas in southern Lebanon, breaching the ceasefire.”
The risk of renewed hostilities remains substantial, with 1.2 million people displaced in Lebanon, and warnings that Hezbollah could soon violate the ceasefire’s conditions. The agreement marks the end of a 14-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, occurring alongside Israel’s bloody war against a second Islamist group, Hamas.
The Iranian government has welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and the Hezbollah militia.https://t.co/CyWFyAHRJ6
— dpa news agency (@dpa_intl) November 27, 2024
Living in a Fragile Peace
This conflict has resulted in significant casualties and mass displacement—3,760 deaths in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and over 70 deaths in Israel. With cessation efforts underway, Lebanon faces the arduous task of rebuilding in anticipation of a lasting peace. The burden remains heavy on those displaced and affected. As many return to their homes, they do so with the shadow of potential renewed conflict looming overhead if diplomatic and peacekeeping efforts falter.
